Bitcoin's Struggling Start to 2026: A Year of Back-to-Back Declines?
Bitcoin's 2026: A Year of Back-to-Back Declines?
Bitcoin is on the brink of a historic first: back-to-back declines in January and February 2026. This is according to Checkonchain data, which reveals that the asset is down a staggering 23% year-to-date, with a 10% drop in January and a further 15% in February. But here's where it gets controversial...
Historically, Bitcoin has never recorded back-to-back declines in January and February, according to Coinglass data. While there have been double-digit drops in January in years like 2015, 2016, and 2018, each was followed by a positive February. If the losses persist, Bitcoin is also on track for its weakest consecutive monthly performance since 2022.
The Benchmark: Cyclical Drawdowns
Checkonchain data provides a benchmark for traders: in a typical down year, the average index reading is 0.84, 50 days in. Bitcoin is currently at 0.77, highlighting the scale of the drawdown.
The Post-Election Year Effect
This weakness follows a 17% decline in 2025, a post-election year. Historically, post-election years have outperformed election years, making the recent underperformance even more notable.
The Supreme Court's Impact
The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to strike down President Trump's tariffs sent Bitcoin higher by about 2% to above $68,000. However, the gains were short-lived, with Bitcoin quickly returning to the $67,000 level.
Economic Data and Market Sentiment
Earlier on Friday, U.S. economic data showed slower-than-expected economic growth alongside higher-than-hoped inflation. This data, combined with the Supreme Court's decision, has likely contributed to the overall market sentiment and Bitcoin's performance.
What's Next for Bitcoin?
As we move forward, the question remains: will Bitcoin break its historical pattern of back-to-back declines? And what impact will the Supreme Court's decision and economic data have on the market?
The comments section is open for discussion. Do you agree or disagree with the analysis? Share your thoughts and join the conversation!
