Fernando Tatis Jr. is gearing up for a monster season, aiming to prove his worth after a tumultuous 2025. The San Diego Padres star, known for his electric play and charismatic personality, has faced scrutiny and skepticism since his PED suspension. In a recent media interview, Tatis Jr. exuded confidence, asserting that he's entering his most productive years. He boldly claimed that when he's healthy and focused, he's the best player in baseball, a statement that has sparked debate among fans and analysts alike.
However, Tatis Jr.'s 2025 season was marred by mechanical issues, which he attributed to swing mechanics he couldn't disclose. During a player forum Q&A, he vowed to reward the fanbase with an MVP season, acknowledging his debt to fans for their unwavering support. Despite his assurances, Tatis Jr.'s past has cast a shadow over his present, with accusations that his previous success was steroid-related.
The reality of Tatis Jr.'s performance since his suspension is a complex narrative. In 2023, after returning from his steroid suspension and wrist surgeries, his bat speed and exit velocity diminished. This decline raises questions about whether it was a result of post-surgery recovery or PED-related. However, a closer look at his 2024 and 2025 statistics reveals a fascinating comparison to his pre-PED days.
According to Baseball Savant data, Tatis Jr.'s exit velocity in 2024 was 93.5, placing him in the 97th percentile, while his 2020 season boasted a 95.9 exit velocity, a 100th percentile achievement. His hard-hit percentage in 2024 was an impressive 99th percentile, compared to the 100th percentile in 2020. While bat speed wasn't measured in 2020, Tatis Jr.'s 2024 performance was in the 86th percentile.
In 2025, his exit velocity dipped to 93.3, a 95th percentile, and his hard-hit percentage dropped to 93rd percentile. The most concerning statistic was his sweet spot percentage, which plummeted to 4%, the lowest of his career, indicating a significant decline in power and slugging percentage. Tatis Jr.'s swing adjustments throughout the season were constant, resulting in a career-best K-rate, walk rate, and lowest chase rate.
So, what does this data reveal? Tatis Jr.'s swing issues last season were primarily due to his inability to hit the sweet spot of the bat, a mechanical issue that could be addressed. Despite this, his overall performance in 2024 and 2025 is remarkably similar to his pre-PED days, except for a key statistic.
The question remains: Can Tatis Jr. fix this mechanical issue and reclaim his MVP status? His media statements suggest a confident approach, indicating that he's addressed his problems and anticipates a successful season. The only way to dismiss steroid allegations is to surpass his pre-suspension achievements. If he can match his 2019-2020 success while undergoing regular PED testing, he might just prove his critics wrong.
Tatis Jr.'s desire to excel is evident, and his dedication to the team and fans is admirable. His emotional expression, while a strength, could have been a hindrance last season. This season, fans can expect to witness the real Tatis, a player who is determined to live up to his potential and silence his critics.
